Early monsoon hits Kerala, onset in Bengal uncertain
The Statesman | 26 May 2025
The southwest monsoons arrived in Kerala eight days ahead of schedule, but its early onset over Bengal remains uncertain, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday.
Marking one of the earliest monsoon arrivals in the last 16 years, Kerala witnessed the official onset of rains on 25 May. However, the IMD clarified that an early onset in Kerala does not necessarily indicate a similar trend for Bengal. “The early arrival of monsoon in Kerala doesn’t guarantee that it will reach Bengal ahead of time,” said H R Biswas, director of the Regional Meteorological Centre in Alipore, Kolkata. He added that a potential low-pressure system is developing over the Bay of Bengal, and the department is closely monitoring its evolution.
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According to the IMD, a low-pressure area is likely to form by Tuesday over the central and northern Bay of Bengal. If it intensifies, parts of South Bengal, including Kolkata, could witness heavy rainfall next week. The normal onset date for monsoon in South Bengal is 10 June, while north Bengal typically receives rainfall earlier. In 2024, Kerala had seen a slightly early onset on 30 May. Notably, the earliest recorded monsoon entry into Kerala was on 11 May, 1918, while the latest was on 18 June, 1972. Between 2010 and 2023, the monsoon reached Kerala on dates ranging from 29 May to 8 June, IMD data shows.
This year’s early onset, 25 May, is second only to 2009, when the monsoon arrived on 23 May. Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast very heavy rainfall for southern Karnataka, Kerala, and parts of Goa over the weekend, accompanied by strong winds reaching speeds of 40-50 kmph. Rain is also expected in Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh through 29 May. For Bengal, forecasters say a clearer picture will emerge after the low-pressure system develops, determining whether the rains will make an early appearance.